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Why Is Moderna (MRNA) Down 10.2% Since Last Earnings Report?
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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 10.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Moderna due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Moderna Q4 Earnings Lag Estimates, Revenues Beat
Moderna incurred loss of 69 cents per share for the fourth quarter of 2020, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 25 cents and the year-ago loss of 37 cents. Loss widened year over year due to higher research & development costs to support clinical development, especially its coronavirus vaccine candidate, mRNA-1273.
Revenues in the quarter were $570.7 million, which comfortably beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $326.58 million. In the year-ago quarter, revenues were $14.1 million. The significant increase in revenues was driven by grants from an agreement with Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) related to development of mRNA-1273 and product sales.
Quarter in Details
Product sales, entirely from COVID-19 vaccine, were $200 million during the quarter.
Grant revenues were $341.4 million compared with $3.5 million in the year-ago quarter. Please note that the company has received a funding commitment of up to $955 million from BARDA to develop its coronavirus vaccine candidate in 2021.
Collaboration revenues were $29.5 million, up 179.6% year over year. The company earns collaboration revenues from agreements with several big pharma/biotech companies including AstraZeneca, Merck and Vertex Pharmaceuticals.
Selling, general and administrative expenses were $79 million compared with $25.7 million in the year-ago quarter. The significant increase was primarily attributable to increased headcount and commercialization-related activities for mRNA-1273 vaccine.
Research & development expenses were $758.9 million compared with $118 million in the year-ago period. The rise was largely due to increased higher clinical development costs for mRNA-1273 and pre-launch inventory buildup prior to the emergency use authorization for the vaccine.
The company ended the quarter with $5.25 billion in cash and cash equivalents, compared with $3.97 billion as of Sep 30, 2020.
Full-Year Results
Moderna reported revenues of $803.4 million for 2020 compared with $60.2 million in 2019. The company incurred loss of $1.96 in 2020, wider than the year-ago loss of $1.55 per share.
2021 Guidance
Moderna provided guidance for product sales in 2021. Considering the existing advance purchase agreements with different countries, the company anticipates product sales to be $18.4 billion in 2021.
The company expects its operating expense to increase by low double-digit percentage points in the first quarter of 2021, compared with adjusted operating expense of approximately $0.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates revision. The consensus estimate has shifted 118.62% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Moderna has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Moderna has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
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Why Is Moderna (MRNA) Down 10.2% Since Last Earnings Report?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 10.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Moderna due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Moderna Q4 Earnings Lag Estimates, Revenues Beat
Moderna incurred loss of 69 cents per share for the fourth quarter of 2020, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 25 cents and the year-ago loss of 37 cents. Loss widened year over year due to higher research & development costs to support clinical development, especially its coronavirus vaccine candidate, mRNA-1273.
Revenues in the quarter were $570.7 million, which comfortably beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $326.58 million. In the year-ago quarter, revenues were $14.1 million. The significant increase in revenues was driven by grants from an agreement with Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) related to development of mRNA-1273 and product sales.
Quarter in Details
Product sales, entirely from COVID-19 vaccine, were $200 million during the quarter.
Grant revenues were $341.4 million compared with $3.5 million in the year-ago quarter. Please note that the company has received a funding commitment of up to $955 million from BARDA to develop its coronavirus vaccine candidate in 2021.
Collaboration revenues were $29.5 million, up 179.6% year over year. The company earns collaboration revenues from agreements with several big pharma/biotech companies including AstraZeneca, Merck and Vertex Pharmaceuticals.
Selling, general and administrative expenses were $79 million compared with $25.7 million in the year-ago quarter. The significant increase was primarily attributable to increased headcount and commercialization-related activities for mRNA-1273 vaccine.
Research & development expenses were $758.9 million compared with $118 million in the year-ago period. The rise was largely due to increased higher clinical development costs for mRNA-1273 and pre-launch inventory buildup prior to the emergency use authorization for the vaccine.
The company ended the quarter with $5.25 billion in cash and cash equivalents, compared with $3.97 billion as of Sep 30, 2020.
Full-Year Results
Moderna reported revenues of $803.4 million for 2020 compared with $60.2 million in 2019. The company incurred loss of $1.96 in 2020, wider than the year-ago loss of $1.55 per share.
2021 Guidance
Moderna provided guidance for product sales in 2021. Considering the existing advance purchase agreements with different countries, the company anticipates product sales to be $18.4 billion in 2021.
The company expects its operating expense to increase by low double-digit percentage points in the first quarter of 2021, compared with adjusted operating expense of approximately $0.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates revision. The consensus estimate has shifted 118.62% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Moderna has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Moderna has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.